Thursday, February 3, 2011

The Protest of Attrition: Events between (8:00 am 2/2/2011- 11:30pm 2/3/2011).

the climax of the Protest of Attrition:

Currently the Rent-a-Thug goons of President Mubarak have withdrawn from #Tahrir (Liberation) Square after a criminal night of state sponsored havoc. The protestors have defended themselves while being surrounded, surprised, and without weapons from the goon squads that were well coordinated, ill-paid, and full of violent vitriol. Many pro-democracy protestors are injured (~1000) and several have been killed in Tahrir Square yesterday with wounds from rocks, bats, knifes, machetes, Molotov cocktails, horse/ camel trampling, vehicle assaults, chemical burns (some kind of acid), tear gas (which only state police possess) and live ammunition.

I only have three words to describe the events of the last ~40 hours in Cairo: State Sponsored Terrorism (8:00 am 2/2/2011- 11:30pm 2/3/2011). Now that the goon squads have retreated it is only a matter of time before they regroup, rearm and amp up their violent acts. Presidents Mubarak's end game plan has not ended yet, there is little hope of him 'riding off into the sunset'. The latest attacks on journalist is especially disconcerting as it seem as they are attempting to pull a page out of Orwell. Silence the dissenting voices, create a narrative, mass propaganda campaigns, Black/White labeling of protestors as “anarchists”, followed by Newspeak use of rhetoric, and concluded by the 'good cop: bad cop' breaking down of people found in the character O'Brian.

The latest developments include tanks moving into a quasi-buffer zone between the protesters gathering in Tahrir Square, and only a few hundred members of the goon squads still remain. The last assault on the protesters was well quordinated, now there is little reason to think that they have simply given up. Until shows of disintegration of the regime shows, one has to assume that there are more attacks to come.

Now the only question is “how and when” will the next wave of attacks of commence.
Yesterday (2/2/2011) Pro-Mubarak thugs showed they could attack from multiple angles with coordination and shock tactics. Tactics like the riding of horses and camels into the protesters at the very beginning of the pro-Mubarak attack on Tahrir Square was done to create a psychological shift in protestors. The use of acid is also disconcerting as it is also done show the lengths that the regime is willing to go in order to secure it position in power.

How: I expect the next assault to amplify violence in order to break the resolve of the protestors. The The goal will probably be the same as before: the taking of Tahrir Square. But I expect many strategic differences between Wednesday and Friday, the first of which we have already seen.

When: I expect a night, or early morning sneak attack on the pro-democracy protesters in Tahrir that will attempt to break. I may very well be wrong on this particular, but I think the worst assumption would be to assume that Mubarak is going to sit idly by and watch the protesters march on his palace.
The last assault happened midday, staged as a competing protest. The next assault will not be done using the same means as the previous.

The Regime is desperate and is pulling out all its tricks. The people will have to fight for their liberation.

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